Election Day is less than a week away now, and your Advocacy Team is here to get you ready for what to expect as the polls close and results come in Tuesday night.
Mississippi Senate Race
We’ll start in Mississippi, which only has federal races on the ballot. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) faces a tougher than expected re-election campaign from Democratic challenger Scott Colom. This week, President Trump travelled to Mississippi to rally with Hyde-Smith, while former President Obama recently cut an ad for Colom’s campaign. That the US Senate election in Mississippi appears to be competitive is an indicator that the national environment for Republicans is challenging, to say the least, at this stage.
Prognosticators smarter than this author would wager that Senator Hyde-Smith remains the favorite and an upset loss would likely portend quite a catastrophic mid-term election for Republicans. On the House side, all four incumbent members of the House of Representatives are expected to retain their seats quite comfortably, which would maintain Mississippi’s federal house representation with Trent Kelly (R), Bennie Thompson (D), Michael Guest (R) and Mike Ezell (R).
Tennessee Senate Race
Tennessee also has a US Senate race on the ballot this year, with Senator Bill Hagerty running for re-election against the same 2020 Democratic challenger, Marquita Bradshaw. That 2020 race finished with a 27-point margin and, even accounting for what appears to be a more challenging environment for Republicans this time around, Hagerty is expected to cruise to victory once again, likely by 20 points.
Tennessee Governor Race
The other statewide race in Tennessee, this one for Governor, is more complicated. Senator Marsha Blackburn would ordinarily be expected to win by the customary 25 or so points that Republicans typically beat Democrats in statewide races. However, Independent candidate David Hatley has spent millions and millions of dollars and appears to have eaten into Blackburn’s margin over Democrat Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green a bit, according to some public polls.
Independent candidates often times poll better than generate support in the actual election, so we’ll be watching for what Hatley’s percentage is on election night. If it’s less than double digits, the race will be called early and Senator Blackburn will become Governor-Elect Blackburn. But if he rises into that 15% range and Democrats have better turnout than recent Tennessee history would typically indicate, this one may be closer than anyone expects.
Tennessee House Races
Staying federally in the House, Tennessee’s mid-cycle redistricting this spring added a 9th district rated Safe-Republican, but concerns about inflation, gas prices and affordability have tightened races across the state in districts previously rated R+20. Most people expect that Democrats will re-take the House, but that those district race flips will not come from Tennessee. It would be quite surprising if any upsets happen on Tuesday.
Races to watch for include the new 9th District, where State Senator Brent Taylor is running against State Representative Justin Pearson to replace the retiring Congressman Steve Cohen (D-Memphis); and the 5th District, where former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher won the primary vs incumbent Congressman Andy Ogles for the right to face Democratic challenger and Columbia Mayor Chaz Moulder.
Tennessee State House Races
In the State House, conventional wisdom has Democrats picking up a couple of seats, but not enough to break the Republican supermajority. Eyes are on Shelby County, Knox County and Montgomery County as the most likely places that a state house seat could flip.
In the State Senate, 8 of the 17 seats up for election are incumbent senators running unopposed (5 Republicans, 3 Democrats). It would be very surprising if any of the remaining 9 races produced a result that flipped party control of even one single seat, which will keep the Republican supermajority in the Tennessee State Senate for another term.
Go Vote!
If you’re still here with us, thank you! We know that’s a lot, but there’s a lot on the ballot this year in our two states. If you’re not the type of person to stay up half the night watching election returns, don’t worry — we are! We’ll have a special edition newsletter in your inboxes Wednesday morning recapping the results from election night and some of the next round of items to watch for (like leadership races).
Our final plea is this—if you haven’t already done so, please go vote! Remind your friends, family and employees to vote. Decisions are made by those who show up.
Visit Go Vote TN for Tennessee voting information and Y’all Vote for Mississippi voting information.
